Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $57,592$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,904.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(55,904.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,364$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,066.7}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,066.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,763$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $236,259$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,969.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(226,969.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,117$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,212.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,212.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,766$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $268,619$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,565.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(271,565.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,498.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $229,911$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $231,139$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,129.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(225,129.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,072$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,032.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,032.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,966$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $183,038$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,160.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(180,160.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,599$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,548.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,548.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $87,737$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,088$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(37,351.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,220$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(409 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,156.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,156.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,897$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,970$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(7.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,702.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(44,702.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,890$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(957 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,786.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,786.3\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,903$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,803$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,420.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24,420.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,631$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(168 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,599.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,599.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,083$ on 2020-05-27