Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,592$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,904.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(55,904.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,364$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,066.7}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,066.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,763$ on 2020-05-27

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $236,259$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,969.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(226,969.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,117$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,212.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,212.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,766$ on 2020-05-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $268,619$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,565.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(271,565.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,498.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $229,911$ on 2020-05-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $231,139$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,129.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(225,129.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,072$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,032.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,032.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,966$ on 2020-05-27

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,038$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,160.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(180,160.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,599$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,548.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,548.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $87,737$ on 2020-05-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,088$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(37,351.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,220$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(409 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,156.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,156.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,897$ on 2020-05-27

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,970$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,702.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(44,702.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,890$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(957 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,786.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,786.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,903$ on 2020-05-27

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,803$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,420.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24,420.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,631$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(168 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,599.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,599.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,083$ on 2020-05-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 97%
Switzerland recovered 96%
Croatia recovered 92%
Austria recovered 92%
Germany recovered 86%
Estonia recovered 85%
Slovakia recovered 84%
Denmark recovered 79%
Czechia recovered 56%
Italy recovered 53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 47%
Serbia recovered 39%
Romania recovered 33%
San Marino recovered 30%
Hungary recovered 30%
France recovered 11%
Bulgaria recovered 6%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(494 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,456.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,456.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(21.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(104.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-27

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,001$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,839.9}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,839.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(106.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-05-27

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,776$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,070.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,070.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,917$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(347 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,881.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,881.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $559$ on 2020-05-27

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,244$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(444 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,189.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,189.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(14.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-05-27